Integrating Climate Change in Development Planning and Disaster Prevention to increase Resilience of Agricultural and Water Sectors

The project objective is to assist the Government of Morocco in mainstreaming climate change in the national development planning process. The specific objectives are to a) improve the understanding of climate change implications for high level strategic development planning; and b) enhance resilience to climate change of key development sectors - agriculture and water - through strengthened institutional capacity, knowledge management, and piloting innovative climate change adaptation and disaster management options to reduce rural poor's vulnerability.

Today’s Morocco is highly vulnerable to climate change. This is because of its large reliance on agriculture as source of income (15% of GDP) and employment (40%), the absence of effective risk management instruments, the presence of incentives that encourage expansion of cereals into marginal lands, a limited ability of faster-growing sectors in urban areas to create new jobs and absorb excess rural labor force; and finally, the relative large share in total exports (15%) of products from irrigated agriculture, which over-uses increasingly scarce water resources. High value assets in urban areas and tourism resort, and strategic infrastructures in transport and other sector are already exposed to natural disaster risks, which that could be exacerbated by climate change. The future does not look brighter. The consensus projections for Morocco’s climate over the coming decades call for a warmer and drier climate, with precipitation possibly declining 10% by 2030, and water stored in dams possibly dropping twice as much. Such scenarios could cause declines in rain-fed yields up to 10% in certain parts of the countries, an increase of 10% or more in the probability of poor harvests, and, in irrigation water, a widening between demand (poised to increase, with not change in current cropping patterns at least 5%, just to avoid heat stress) and supply, expected to decline over 25% in reservoirs. These impacts could materialize in the coming two decades, but are likely to escalate on a much larger scale towards mid-century. With declining cereal yields and shrinking water resources, dependency on staple crop import for food provision (currently 40% for cereals) is likely to increase.

Among all related sectors, agriculture and water are key concerns in Morocco’s development as they relate directly to food security, water access, and trade. These sectors are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate varibility and the drought in 2005, for example, cut cereal production by half. Farmers of rainfed agriculture are among the most vulnerable to increasingly negative climate change impacts. Mid to long term decline in agriculture yields, and increased occurrence of droughts will affect the livelihoods of poorer communities in rural areas. Reduction in availability of surface water and aquifer recharge will jeopardize the development prospects of irrigated agriculture, and increase the dependency on food imports in an environment of increasing volatile international food prices. Eighty seven percent of total water withdrawals go to irrigation. Agricultural production is constrained in many years by rationing of irrigation water – the system was able to distribute only 60% of the water for which the system was designed over the last decade. Uncertainty about water supplies is already acute, and a key factor in lower-than-potential agricultural revenues and in increasing disputes about water availability and allocation. Poor water quality exacerbates the water scarcity problem, since only 5% of discharges are treated. The poor will be particularly affected by the effects of climate change on water availability and agricultural production, since poverty remains an overwhelmingly rural phenomenon and the entire economy is highly vulnerable to rainfall fluctuations that affect both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Reforms in agricultural and water sectors, and increased attention to disaster managment are part of an overall Government of Morocco (GOM) agenda. In particular, the Government has recently development a national agricultural strategy (Plan Maroc Vert) for the period of 2008 - 2015. The Plan Vert will address the economic, social and environmental challenges that the Moroccan agriculture is facing through the two pillars: i) development of an agriculture of high value and high productivity; and ii) fighting poverty through increasing revenues of small farmers. The GoM has been pursuing reforms towards more efficient water management and service delivery. A long-term reform process was started in 1995 with the landmark promulgation of an innovative Water Law, upholding the principles of integrated, decentralized and participatory water resource management, and creating river basin agencies to enact them. Between 1995 and 2009 the Government has continued to take bold initiatives in the water sector such as promotion of PPPs for urban water and irrigation and sector adjustment programs engaged with the support of EU, AfDB and WB.

To meet the project objective, the proposed project components include:

1. Integration of CC in development planning. The outputs include: i) Integrated CC strategy developed and submitted to the Council of the Government; and ii) Institutional mechanism defined to include CC considerations into development planning on a regular basis;

2. Integration of CC in the implementation of the Plan Vert ( the Agricultural Strategy of Morocco) to enhance resilience to CC. The outputs include: i) Targeted instruments to enhance the climate change resilience in 3-5 Plan Vert regions (e.g. adoption of climate resilient crops and improved cultivation practices, etc), and ii) Development of disaster prevention and management tools (e.g. early warning systems and weather-index based insurance schemes) and application to pilot regions;

3. Support the planning of CC proofed water management in selected river basins. The goal is a better planning of overall water management in selected basins by incorporating climate variability and change in practices of river basin agencies. The outputs include: i) Development of decision support to assist river agencies planning under climate change; and ii) Pilot investments to optimize water management under climate change (i.e waste water re-use and other options identified and applied); and

4. Project Management and Monitoring & Evaluation. The outputs include: i) baseline established; ii) monitoring data regularly collected; and iii) project implemented through the operation of a small PMU.

PROJECT COMPONENTS:

1. Integration of CC in development planning.

2. Integration of climate change in the implementation of the Plan Vert (Agriculture Strategy of Morocco)

3. Support the planning of climate change proofed water management in selected river basins

4. Project Management and Monitoring & Evaluation

EXPECTED OUTPUTS:

1. Policy priorities to integrate CC into relevant Government policies agreed by key Government agencies (i.e. MAEG, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Water and Env, and Ministry of Finance)

2. Enhanced resilience to CC of agriculure in 3-5 regions

3. Better planning of overall water management in selected basins by incorporating climate variability and change in practices of river basin agencies.

4. M&E system operational

CONTACTS:

Kanta Kumari Rigaud
Tel: 202 473 4269

PROJECT STATUS:

Council Approved