Hydrological impact simulations of climate change on Lebanese coastal rivers

The significance of predicted climatic changes is still uncertain. The hydrological consequences of climatic changes on Lebanese catchments are analysed by means of different scenarios of rainfall variability and temperature increase. The conceptual rainfall–runoff model MEDOR, coupled to a stochastic model of rainfall and temperature, is used to estimate change in runoff by simulation of six scenarios. These test the response to the rainfall structure, to the duration of rainy events, their frequency, and the duration of the rainy season. The climate–runoff model is used to determine the impact of a temperature increase of 2 degrees on the flow characteristics of a watershed affected by seasonal snow cover. The modifications of the hydrological regimes are significant: droughts are predicted to occur 15 days to one month earlier; snowmelt floods are often replaced by rainfall floods; and the peak flow occurs two months earlier. These changes could have a great impact on water resources management in the future.