France Stratégie has recently published a report titled “Water Demand: Territorial Prospective for 2050”, which anticipates the evolution of water demand in metropolitan France in light of upcoming climate challenges.
This study, commissioned by the French Prime Minister in September 2023, presents three prospective scenarios:
- Trend Scenario: continuation of past trends.
- Public Policies Scenario: implementation of recently announced policies.
- Breakthrough Scenario: adoption of a sober water use approach.
The findings indicate that, under the trend scenario, annual withdrawals would remain stable (+1%) between 2020 and 2050. However, a significant decrease is projected in the public policies (-24%) and breakthrough (-47%) scenarios, mainly due to the reduction in water demand for energy production in the Rhône Valley. Additionally, water demand for agricultural irrigation is expected to increase considerably, becoming predominant in all scenarios. This rise is particularly concerning, as irrigation consumes the majority of the withdrawn water due to plant evapotranspiration. Consequently, water consumption would increase by 102% in the trend scenario and by 72% in the public policies scenario. Only the breakthrough scenario would limit this increase to 10%.
These projections highlight the importance of adapting our water use to anticipate future pressures on this essential resource. An upcoming publication by France Stratégie will quantify potential tensions between the available water resources in 2050 and the projected demand, thereby contributing to better anticipation of territorial challenges related to water.